نوع مقاله : پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 فارغ التحصیل دکتری فلسفۀ علم و فناوری دانشگاه صنعتی شریف

2 دانشیار گروه فلسفۀ دانشگاه مفید قم

چکیده

طبق رویکرد رایج به استنتاج بهترین تبیین (IBE)، فرضیه‌ای که بهترین تبیین را برای پدیده‌های در دستِ بررسی ارائه می‌دهد، احتمالاً صادق است. یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های پیش روی این نحوۀ استدلال” ایراد وُلتِر “ است. مطابق این اشکال، دلیلی نداریم که ملاک‌های انتخاب بهترین تبیین، موسوم به مزیت‌های تبیین‌گر، محتمل‌ترین تبیین- یعنی تبیینی که نسبت به دیگر تبیین‌های رقیب از احتمال صدق بیش‌تری برخوردار است- را به دست دهند. هدف اصلیِ این نوشتار، واکاویِ ملاک‌های احتمالاتیِ مرتبط با IBE در مواجهه با ایراد وُلتِراست. به بیان دقیق‌تر، در پی آنیم که چنان‌چه ضابطه‌های احتمالاتیِ ارائه شده برای ارزیابیِ فرضیه‌های تبیین‌گر، ملاک انتخاب بهترین تبیین قرار گیرند، آیا این اطمینان وجود خواهد داشت که محتمل‌ترین تبیین به دست آید؟ در این راستا، ملا‌ک‌های احتمالاتیِ مرتبط با IBE را در سه دستۀ ملاک‌های معطوف به قضیۀ بیز، ملاک‌های معطوف به نظریۀ تأیید و ملاک‌های معطوف به مزیت‌های تبیین‌گر بررسی می‌کنیم. این واکاوی نشان می‌دهد که هیچ‌یک از ضابطه‌های ارائه شده از پس تحدید بهترین تبیین - به گونه‌ای که محتمل‌ترین تبیین را به ‌دست دهد- بر نمی‌آیند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Analysis of Probabilistic Criteria in Inference to the Best Explanation

چکیده [English]

According to a favored version of inference to the best explanation (IBE), the hypothesis that provides the best explanation for a group of observed phenomena is probably true. One of the key objections against this line of thought is Voltaire’s objection. According to this objection, we have no reason to believe that the explanatory virtues, as the criteria for selecting the best explanation, provide the likeliest explanation. In this paper, we address probabilistic criteria which are subject to Voltaire’s objection in IBE. To be exact, we scrutinize this question: considering proposed probabilistic criteria for assessing the explanatory hypotheses as the criteria for selecting the best explanation, is it justified to think of the best explanation as the likeliest one? Dealing with this question, the probabilistic criteria will be analyzed in three group: criteria based on Bayes’ theorem, criteria based on confirmation theory and criteria based on explanatory virtues. We argue that none of these criteria can determine the best explanation which provides the likeliest one.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Inference to the Best Explanation
  • Explanation
  • Probability
  • Bayes
  • Confirmation
  • Explanatory Virtues
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